200-Day MA Deviation Gauge
Quantitative analysis of how far each sector ETF trades from its 200-day Simple Moving Average — the institutional benchmark for long-term trend direction and dip-buying opportunity zones. Combines deviation%, 200MA slope, and RSI to distinguish true dips from falling knives.
SMA 200200MA SlopeDip Signal
📖 How to Use This Gauge — Buying Dips, Not Falling Knives
✅ Strong Dip Buy Conditions
- Price is 0–10% below the 200-day SMA
- The 200MA slope is still positive (rising)
- RSI is below 40 (oversold confirmation)
- Market breadth (% stocks above their 200MA) is not collapsing
🔪 Falling Knife Warning Signs
- Price is >15% below a declining 200MA
- RSI is 35–50 (momentum deteriorating, not capitulating)
- The 200MA has been declining for >30 days
- Sector breadth is <20% (most stocks also breaking down)
⚠️ Watch Zone Discipline
When the signal shows "Watch / Caution", scale in with a maximum of 30–40% of your target position. Use a staged entry (e.g., 3 tranches over 2–4 weeks). Only add if the 200MA slope shows signs of flattening.
📐 The 200MA Slope is the Key Variable
A rising 200MA acting as support = institutional buy zone. A declining 200MA acting as resistance = falling knife territory. The same -12% deviation can be a screaming buy (rising 200MA, 2010/2016) or a warning (declining 200MA, 2008/2022).
⚠️ Disclaimer: All deviation zones, forward return references, and dip signals on this page are for educational and research purposes only. They are based on historical statistical analysis and do not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.